1. Start with the exact selection
We identify the game or player, the type of bet, the side, and the line. When there is a matching offer, we show the sportsbook, price, and when that price was seen.
Methodology
The thinking behind every signal.
We bring a model estimate, an observed sportsbook offer, and relevant game context into one place. Here is how to read what you see and what to double-check before making your own call.
How a signal comes together
A useful comparison starts with the exact selection, not just a game or a player name.
2. Put it in context
Different sports and markets need different information. Details can show relevant matchup, player-role, availability, lineup, or game-condition context when it is available—and call out what is missing or unconfirmed.
3. Compare it with the price
Our model estimates a chance for that selection. Model edge compares that estimate with the chance needed to break even at the displayed price. It is not a promised return, and prices can move after we record them.
How to read the board
Chance is not certainty
Model chance is an estimate, not a guarantee or a record of past wins. A larger model edge means a bigger difference between our estimate and the recorded price—not that a play is certain to win.
Not every market has a play
Top Plays meet sport-specific conditions for the displayed market. All Plays, model outlooks, and no-play updates are different. Some specialty views are for analysis only. No label promises a result.
Open Details before deciding
Check the exact line, sportsbook, quote time, supporting context, and any caution or availability note. An older price or a change in player status may make the displayed comparison less useful.
Different sports, different context
Each sport has its own model and available markets. The information shown depends on the latest published data.
MLB
For game and player markets, useful context can include probable starting pitchers, projected lineups, recent performance, ballparks, weather, and bullpen use. Confirmed starters and lineups can change.
NFL
Game lines, player markets, and touchdown views depend on the matchup and who is expected to play. Player roles, opportunities, injuries, and game conditions matter; an earlier estimate may not reflect later news.
College football
CFB currently covers full-game spreads, moneylines, and totals—not player props. We show team and matchup context and recorded prices when available. Sourced betting splits can add context to a Top Play but do not change its model chance or edge.