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MLB Plays

Today’s MLB Plays

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How our signals work

Inputs vary by sport and market. Model estimates and additional intel are shown separately.

MLB Top Plays require at least 6% estimated return at the observed price; other Plays require at least 2.5%. No-HR, HR, first-inning, alternate-line and other high-volatility props are excluded from Top Plays. These are model estimates, not guarantees. Player status and exact book/line context remain in Details.

Core model signals

Opportunity & role
Expected chances to produce the outcome: plate appearances, batters faced and innings in MLB; attempts, carries, routes and targets in NFL.
Matchup & performance
Player and team skill, opponent tendencies, recent usage, and relevant pitcher-batter or offense-defense matchups.
Game context
Lineups or inactives, starting roles, bullpen or team availability, venue, weather, pace, quarterback status and likely game script, where relevant and available.
Outcome distribution
Related game and player outcomes come from a shared model. Over, Under and push chances are evaluated from that distribution at the listed line.

Intel layer

Public intel
Source-identified news and research can add timely lineup, injury, role or game context when available. Missing or unconfirmed reports remain labeled as such.
Market intel
Line movement, betting splits and sharp-money indicators add context when available. Source, time and exact-line or broader-event scope are shown when supplied; this intel does not silently change model chance.

Reading the numbers

Projection & probability
Projection is an average in market units, not a hit probability. Model probability estimates how often this exact selection would win under the model’s assumptions; it is not a measured hit rate.
Price comparison / model edge
Model probability minus the price-required break-even probability. For example, 60% − 50% = +10% model edge. The % sign denotes a difference between probabilities—not a 10% hit chance, relative improvement or return. Known pushes or voids are accounted for where supplied.
Quote & movement
Book, line, odds and observation time identify the price being compared. Any opening-to-current movement is shown as context, not proof of value.
Playable to
For published Plays only, the worst supplied odds that still qualify at the listed line and book. Always check the current quote.

Plays (232)

Bet and eventEventMarketPrice / bookModel EdgeBreak-evenQuote observedDetails
Liam Hicks OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Liam Hicks · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 1.05 hits
Batter Hits 0.5Projected 1.05 hits 3.3%Est. chance 68.2% · Needed 64.9% -185DraftKings 3.3%Est. chance 68.2% · Needed 64.9%Price -185 64.9%
Chandler Simpson OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Chandler Simpson · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 1.14 hits
Batter Hits 0.5Projected 1.14 hits 2.8%Est. chance 72.5% · Needed 69.7% -230DraftKingsHeavy juice 2.8%Est. chance 72.5% · Needed 69.7%Price -230Heavy juice 69.7%
Victor Mesa Jr. OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Victor Mesa Jr. · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.84 hits
Batter Hits 0.5Projected 0.84 hits 2.4%Est. chance 58.9% · Needed 56.5% -130BetOnline 2.4%Est. chance 58.9% · Needed 56.5%Price -130 56.5%
Jonathan Aranda OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Jonathan Aranda · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 1.08 hits
Batter Hits 0.5Projected 1.08 hits 2.2%Est. chance 70.0% · Needed 67.8% -211DraftKingsHeavy juice 2.2%Est. chance 70.0% · Needed 67.8%Price -211Heavy juice 67.8%
Jonny Deluca OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Jonny Deluca · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.97 hits
Batter Hits 0.5Projected 0.97 hits 2.9%Est. chance 66.0% · Needed 63.1% -171DraftKings 2.9%Est. chance 66.0% · Needed 63.1%Price -171 63.1%
Cooper Pratt OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Cooper Pratt · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 1.04 hits
Batter Hits 0.5Projected 1.04 hits 5.6%Est. chance 68.2% · Needed 62.7% -168DraftKings 5.6%Est. chance 68.2% · Needed 62.7%Price -168 62.7%
Jake Bauers OVERJake Bauers · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 1.01 hits Batter Hits 0.5Projected 1.01 hits 6.8%Est. chance 66.5% · Needed 59.7% -148DraftKings 6.8%Est. chance 66.5% · Needed 59.7%Price -148 59.7%
Garrett Mitchell OVERGarrett Mitchell · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 1 hits Batter Hits 0.5Projected 1 hits 9.4%Est. chance 66.6% · Needed 57.3% -134DraftKings 9.4%Est. chance 66.6% · Needed 57.3%Price -134 57.3%
Taylor Walls OVERTaylor Walls · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.7 hits Batter Hits 0.5Projected 0.7 hits 6.2%Est. chance 52.9% · Needed 46.7% +114DraftKings 6.2%Est. chance 52.9% · Needed 46.7%Price +114 46.7%
Richie Palacios OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Richie Palacios · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.8 hits
Batter Hits 0.5Projected 0.8 hits 2.6%Est. chance 57.8% · Needed 55.2% -123DraftKings 2.6%Est. chance 57.8% · Needed 55.2%Price -123 55.2%
David Hamilton OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

David Hamilton · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.82 hits
Batter Hits 0.5Projected 0.82 hits 3.2%Est. chance 59.4% · Needed 56.1% -128DraftKings 3.2%Est. chance 59.4% · Needed 56.1%Price -128 56.1%
Brice Turang OVERBrice Turang · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 1.12 hits Batter Hits 0.5Projected 1.12 hits 5.4%Est. chance 70.9% · Needed 65.5% -190DraftKings 5.4%Est. chance 70.9% · Needed 65.5%Price -190 65.5%
Jonathan Aranda OVERJonathan Aranda · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 1.5Projection: 1.9 hits + runs + RBIs Batter Hits Runs Rbis 1.5Projected 1.9 hits + runs + RBIs 3.5%Est. chance 53.2% · Needed 49.8% +101DraftKings 3.5%Est. chance 53.2% · Needed 49.8%Price +101 49.8%
David Hamilton OVERDavid Hamilton · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.2 hits + runs + RBIs Batter Hits Runs Rbis 0.5Projected 1.2 hits + runs + RBIs 8.1%Est. chance 69.5% · Needed 61.4% -159DraftKings 8.1%Est. chance 69.5% · Needed 61.4%Price -159 61.4%
Jake Bauers OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Jake Bauers · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 1.5Projection: 1.8 hits + runs + RBIs
Batter Hits Runs Rbis 1.5Projected 1.8 hits + runs + RBIs 1.4%Est. chance 48.0% · Needed 46.5% +115DraftKings 1.4%Est. chance 48.0% · Needed 46.5%Price +115 46.5%
Taylor Walls OVERTaylor Walls · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.2 hits + runs + RBIs Batter Hits Runs Rbis 0.5Projected 1.2 hits + runs + RBIs 14.2%Est. chance 69.6% · Needed 55.4% -124DraftKings 14.2%Est. chance 69.6% · Needed 55.4%Price -124 55.4%
Garrett Mitchell OVERGarrett Mitchell · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.6 hits + runs + RBIs Batter Hits Runs Rbis 0.5Projected 1.6 hits + runs + RBIs 16.5%Est. chance 78.4% · Needed 61.8% -162DraftKings 16.5%Est. chance 78.4% · Needed 61.8%Price -162 61.8%
Ryan Vilade OVER
Caution

Limited recent starting-role history: 1 games.

Ryan Vilade · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.6 hits + runs + RBIs
Batter Hits Runs Rbis 0.5Projected 1.6 hits + runs + RBIs 12.4%Est. chance 74.8% · Needed 62.4% -166DraftKings 12.4%Est. chance 74.8% · Needed 62.4%Price -166 62.4%
Cooper Pratt OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Cooper Pratt · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 1.5Projection: 1.7 hits + runs + RBIs
Batter Hits Runs Rbis 1.5Projected 1.7 hits + runs + RBIs 5.2%Est. chance 50.5% · Needed 45.2% +121DraftKings 5.2%Est. chance 50.5% · Needed 45.2%Price +121 45.2%
Liam Hicks OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Liam Hicks · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 1.5Projection: 1.9 hits + runs + RBIs
Batter Hits Runs Rbis 1.5Projected 1.9 hits + runs + RBIs 4.1%Est. chance 51.8% · Needed 47.6% +110DraftKings 4.1%Est. chance 51.8% · Needed 47.6%Price +110 47.6%
Richie Palacios OVERRichie Palacios · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs Batter Hits Runs Rbis 0.5Projected 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs 14.6%Est. chance 74.4% · Needed 59.8% -149DraftKings 14.6%Est. chance 74.4% · Needed 59.8%Price -149 59.8%
Brice Turang OVERBrice Turang · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 1.5Projection: 1.9 hits + runs + RBIs Batter Hits Runs Rbis 1.5Projected 1.9 hits + runs + RBIs 3.3%Est. chance 52.8% · Needed 49.5% +102DraftKings 3.3%Est. chance 52.8% · Needed 49.5%Price +102 49.5%
Jonathan Aranda OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Jonathan Aranda · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Total Bases · Line 1.5Projection: 1.7 total bases
Batter Total Bases 1.5Projected 1.7 total bases 2.7%Est. chance 42.4% · Needed 39.7% +152DraftKings 2.7%Est. chance 42.4% · Needed 39.7%Price +152 39.7%
Christian Yelich OVER
Caution

The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario.

Christian Yelich · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Batter Total Bases · Line 0.5Projection: 1.6 total bases
Batter Total Bases 0.5Projected 1.6 total bases 1.8%Est. chance 65.5% · Needed 63.6% -175BetMGM 1.8%Est. chance 65.5% · Needed 63.6%Price -175 63.6%

More MLB markets

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  • Batter StrikeoutsNo plays available No current sportsbook line matched this market. Check back as lines update.
  • No home runNo plays available No current sportsbook line matched this market. Check back as lines update.