Model chance
Model chance is an estimated probability for a clearly defined selection. It expresses uncertainty and should not be treated as certainty.
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Probability versus odds
A plain-language guide to making a model estimate comparable with a sportsbook price.
Implied probability
A sportsbook price can be translated into the chance it implies. Comparing it with a model estimate is useful only when the event, selection, line, sportsbook, and quote time actually match.
Fair price and break-even
Fair price expresses a model chance as odds. Break-even describes the chance required by the displayed price before considering a possible push or void. Both are references, not advice or a guarantee.