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NFL Plays

Today’s NFL Plays

Week 8 · Updated

350 plays analyzed · 114 market types covered

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How our signals work

Inputs vary by sport and market. Model estimates and additional intel are shown separately.

NFL Top Plays require at least 5 percentage points of model edge and 5% estimated return at the observed price; other Plays require at least 2.5 points and 2% respectively. Alternate lines, touchdown, kicker, defense and other elevated-volatility markets are excluded from Top Plays. These are model estimates, not guarantees. Player status and exact book/line context remain in Details.

Core model signals

Opportunity & role
Expected chances to produce the outcome: plate appearances, batters faced and innings in MLB; attempts, carries, routes and targets in NFL.
Matchup & performance
Player and team skill, opponent tendencies, recent usage, and relevant pitcher-batter or offense-defense matchups.
Game context
Lineups or inactives, starting roles, bullpen or team availability, venue, weather, pace, quarterback status and likely game script, where relevant and available.
Outcome distribution
Related game and player outcomes come from a shared model. Over, Under and push chances are evaluated from that distribution at the listed line.

Intel layer

Public intel
Source-identified news and research can add timely lineup, injury, role or game context when available. Missing or unconfirmed reports remain labeled as such.
Market intel
Line movement, betting splits and sharp-money indicators add context when available. Source, time and exact-line or broader-event scope are shown when supplied; this intel does not silently change model chance.

Reading the numbers

Projection & probability
Projection is an average in market units, not a hit probability. Model probability estimates how often this exact selection would win under the model’s assumptions; it is not a measured hit rate.
Price comparison / model edge
Model probability minus the price-required break-even probability. For example, 60% − 50% = +10% model edge. The % sign denotes a difference between probabilities—not a 10% hit chance, relative improvement or return. Known pushes or voids are accounted for where supplied.
Quote & movement
Book, line, odds and observation time identify the price being compared. Any opening-to-current movement is shown as context, not proof of value.
Playable to
For published Plays only, the worst supplied odds that still qualify at the listed line and book. Always check the current quote.

All Plays (350)

Bet and eventEventMarketPrice / bookModel EdgeBreak-evenQuote observedDetails
Luther Burden III Over
Caution

A change in playing time could erase this play’s edge at the listed line and price.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks · Receiving yards · Line 50.5Projection: 65.01 yards		 Receiving yards 50.5Projected 65.01 yards 8.8%Est. chance 62.1% · Needed 53.3% -114FanDuel 8.8%Est. chance 62.1% · Needed 53.3%Price -114 53.3%
New York JetsLas Vegas Raiders at New York Jets · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 13.6%Est. chance 67.1% · Needed 53.5% -120FanDuel 13.6%Est. chance 67.1% · Needed 53.5%Price -120 53.5%
Josh Jacobs Under
Caution

Limited recent role history: 1 games behind this workload estimate.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers · Rushing yards · Line 60.5Projection: 47.89 yards		 Rushing yards 60.5Projected 47.89 yards 11.8%Est. chance 65.9% · Needed 54.1% -118betrivers 11.8%Est. chance 65.9% · Needed 54.1%Price -118 54.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs OverMinnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions · Receiving yards · Line 33.5Projection: 43.26 yards Receiving yards 33.5Projected 43.26 yards 10.2%Est. chance 63.5% · Needed 53.3% -114FanDuel 10.2%Est. chance 63.5% · Needed 53.3%Price -114 53.3%
Jalen Coker UnderCarolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers · Receptions · Line 4.5Projection: 3.4 receptions Receptions 4.5Projected 3.4 receptions 26.6%Est. chance 72.0% · Needed 45.5% +120FanDuel 26.6%Est. chance 72.0% · Needed 45.5%Price +120 45.5%
Christian Watson Under
Caution

If Matthew Golden sits, that could erase this play’s edge at the listed line and price.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers · Receptions · Line 4.5Projection: 4.28 receptions		 Receptions 4.5Projected 4.28 receptions 8.6%Est. chance 58.1% · Needed 49.5% +102DraftKings 8.6%Est. chance 58.1% · Needed 49.5%Price +102 49.5%
UnderKansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos · Game total · Line 41Projection: 39.78 points Game total 41Projected 39.78 points 5.8%Est. chance 56.0% · Needed 50.1% -107betrivers 5.8%Est. chance 56.0% · Needed 50.1%Price -107 50.1%
Tucker Kraft Over
Caution

A change in playing time could erase this play’s edge at the listed line and price.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers · Receiving yards · Line 43.5Projection: 50.59 yards		 Receiving yards 43.5Projected 50.59 yards 5.2%Est. chance 58.2% · Needed 53.1% -113betrivers 5.2%Est. chance 58.2% · Needed 53.1%Price -113 53.1%
Tennessee TitansTennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 7.3%Est. chance 24.8% · Needed 17.6% +455DraftKings 7.3%Est. chance 24.8% · Needed 17.6%Price +455 17.6%
Josh Jacobs Over
Caution

A change in playing time could erase this play’s edge at the listed line and price.

More to consider (1)
  • Limited recent role history: 1 games behind this workload estimate.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers · Receiving yards · Line 14.5Projection: 23.24 yards		 Receiving yards 14.5Projected 23.24 yards 15.7%Est. chance 68.9% · Needed 53.3% -114FanDuel 15.7%Est. chance 68.9% · Needed 53.3%Price -114 53.3%
New York JetsLas Vegas Raiders at New York Jets · Point spread · Line -1.5Projection: -6.1 points Point spread -1.5Projected -6.1 points 14.1%Est. chance 65.3% · Needed 51.2% -105bovada 14.1%Est. chance 65.3% · Needed 51.2%Price -105 51.2%
Rome Odunze Over
Caution

A change in playing time could erase this play’s edge at the listed line and price.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks · Receiving yards · Line 42.5Projection: 49.25 yards		 Receiving yards 42.5Projected 49.25 yards 5.2%Est. chance 57.3% · Needed 52.2% -109DraftKings 5.2%Est. chance 57.3% · Needed 52.2%Price -109 52.2%
Tucker Kraft Under
Caution

If Matthew Golden sits, that could erase this play’s edge at the listed line and price.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers · Receptions · Line 4.5Projection: 4.32 receptions		 Receptions 4.5Projected 4.32 receptions 3.6%Est. chance 57.3% · Needed 53.7% -116DraftKings 3.6%Est. chance 57.3% · Needed 53.7%Price -116 53.7%
Philadelphia EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders · Point spread · Line 5.5Projection: +1.46 points Point spread 5.5Projected +1.46 points 5.7%Est. chance 57.0% · Needed 51.2% -105lowvig 5.7%Est. chance 57.0% · Needed 51.2%Price -105 51.2%
UnderPhiladelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders · Game total · Line 40.5Projection: 39.96 points Game total 40.5Projected 39.96 points 9.0%Est. chance 61.4% · Needed 52.4% -110DraftKings 9.0%Est. chance 61.4% · Needed 52.4%Price -110 52.4%
UnderIndianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars · Game total · Line 46.5Projection: 42.13 points Game total 46.5Projected 42.13 points 16.3%Est. chance 67.9% · Needed 51.7% -107lowvig 16.3%Est. chance 67.9% · Needed 51.7%Price -107 51.7%
UnderCleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers · Game total · Line 39.5Projection: 37.73 points Game total 39.5Projected 37.73 points 10.4%Est. chance 62.1% · Needed 51.7% -107lowvig 10.4%Est. chance 62.1% · Needed 51.7%Price -107 51.7%
Miami DolphinsNew England Patriots at Miami Dolphins · Point spread · Line 7Projection: +1.98 points Point spread 7Projected +1.98 points 10.7%Est. chance 61.2% · Needed 50.5% -108lowvig 10.7%Est. chance 61.2% · Needed 50.5%Price -108 50.5%
OverLos Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams · Game total · Line 44.5Projection: 47.79 points Game total 44.5Projected 47.79 points 6.7%Est. chance 58.8% · Needed 52.2% -109betrivers 6.7%Est. chance 58.8% · Needed 52.2%Price -109 52.2%
Sam Darnold Over
Caution

A change in playing time could erase this play’s edge at the listed line and price.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks · Passing yards · Line 231.5Projection: 261.37 yards		 Passing yards 231.5Projected 261.37 yards 2.9%Est. chance 56.4% · Needed 53.5% -115betrivers 2.9%Est. chance 56.4% · Needed 53.5%Price -115 53.5%
Dallas CowboysArizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys · Point spread · Line -6.5Projection: -9.43 points Point spread -6.5Projected -9.43 points 5.5%Est. chance 57.7% · Needed 52.2% -109lowvig 5.5%Est. chance 57.7% · Needed 52.2%Price -109 52.2%
UnderBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills · Game total · Line 54Projection: 50.37 points Game total 54Projected 50.37 points 9.9%Est. chance 59.9% · Needed 50.0% -105lowvig 9.9%Est. chance 59.9% · Needed 50.0%Price -105 50.0%
Chicago BearsChicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 12.9%Est. chance 51.4% · Needed 38.5% +151lowvig 12.9%Est. chance 51.4% · Needed 38.5%Price +151 38.5%
Philadelphia EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 11.1%Est. chance 42.9% · Needed 31.8% +207lowvig 11.1%Est. chance 42.9% · Needed 31.8%Price +207 31.8%